Main conclusions:
- Bitcoin remains under pressure due to ETF outflows of $2.1 billion in June and the ongoing discount relative to global Bitcoin/USDT pairs.
- Strategy’s STRC shares are showing weakness, highlighting growing concerns about monthly dividend obligations and share dilution.
The US stock market fell on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran was not final. Investors fear that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not clear soon, further adding to inflationary pressures. Is the Stock Market and Bitcoin (BTC) Under Threat?
The US and Iran are expected to formally sign the deal on Friday, kicking off a 60-day negotiation period. On Wednesday, Trump said markets should like the deal and that oil prices could fall. However, the US president has threatened further bombing unless Iran “behaves well”.
5-year US Treasury bond yield vs. Brent crude, USD. Source: TradingView
Brent crude fell to a 100-day low, but traders are skeptical that fuel prices will continue to weigh on markets for much longer. The yield on US Treasuries remained flat at 4.16% from two weeks earlier. Investors are less confident about the US Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates soon, thereby demanding higher yields on government bonds.
Impact of higher inflation amid weak institutional demand for Bitcoin
U.S. retail sales data released on Wednesday showed a 6.9% increase compared to May 2025, but the increase likely reflected higher prices for items such as fuel. At the same time, the first meeting of the Fed committee was held on Wednesday, which was held by Chairman Kevin Warsh. The decision to keep interest rates on hold was largely expected, but investors will try to distinguish between Warsh’s views and personal confidence.
Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
The Nasdaq-100 technology index traded 2% below its all-time high, while bitcoin has failed to hold above $80,000 since mid-May. Bitcoin traders’ skepticism is partly due to a lack of inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Coinbase’s lack of premium over international exchanges, suggesting weak demand from institutional investors.
Coinbase Bitcoin USD vs USDT International Prices. Source: TradingView & Cointelegraph
Coinbase’s USD price of Bitcoin has traded at a discount to international USDT-based exchanges over the past five weeks. Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs rallied $2.1 billion in net outflows until June. Recent weakness in Preferred Perpetual Equity ( STRC US ) strategy has added to the negative sentiment.
On the topic: Bitcoin Surpasses $67,000 After US-Iran Peace Agreement: Is It A Bull Trap?
Strategy Preferred Continuous Capital (STRC US). Source: TradingView
STRC offers holders a yield of 11.5%, but the new share issue can only happen at a fixed price of $100. Therefore, Strategy has less ability to pay out $142 million in cash dividends each month, forcing MSTR holders to dilute by issuing more shares or reducing its $1.1 billion cash holdings, which currently stand at $1.1 billion. The total amount of preferred stock issued by Strategy is $15.5 billion.
There is no evidence that the Strategy will forced to sell any of their bitcoins reserves in the near term, but the weakness in STRC’s price reflects low confidence in the company’s financial leverage. Even if institutional bitcoin inflows resume, investors fear that the US-Iran deal may not go through, so a sustained rally to $80,000 may take longer.
