Main conclusions:
- Solana’s tokenized assets and the resurgence of memecoins pushed SOL to a 30-day high of $83.
- Appetite for bullish leverage has cooled sharply, suggesting traders are hesitant to bet on a further rally to $90.
On Friday, Solana’s SOL token jumped to a more than 30-day high of $83, marking a breakaway from the altcoin market. The SOL rally was fueled by a spike in Solana tokenized trading volume, an influx of stablecoin liquidity, and an unexpected return of memecoin activity. Can SOL regain the $90 level?
Total altcoin market cap, USD (left) vs. SOL/USD (right). Source: TradingView
SOL’s growth spurt began on June 23, coinciding with cumulative transfers of tokenized shares to Solana exceeding $10 billion. SpaceX’s launch of Backpack trading shares has fueled Solana’s use of decentralized finance (DeFi). In contrast, the broader altcoin market continued its downtrend, hitting its lowest level since December 2023.
Net flows of tokenized assets for 30 days without stablecoins, USD. Source: RWA.xyz
Tokenized assets at the Solana network rose to a record high of $3.5 billion on Wednesday, up from $2.7 billion a month earlier. Recent gains have been driven by corporate credit tokens and stock market indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. According to data from RWA.xyz, Solana leads the tokenized industry with 294,274 active addresses, followed by Ethereum with 204,955.
Memecoin, a surge in prediction markets could push SOL to $90
The Black Bull (ANSEM) memcoin airdrop on Sunday renewed interest in the sector. On Tuesday, the token launched on Pump.fun reached a market capitalization of $60 million. An anonymous developer sent about 65% of the supply to the public wallet of crypto-influencer Ansem. The rollout lacked transparency, but 74,000 addresses were covered in the first 3 days.
Best performance of Solana tokens in 7 days. Source: CoinRanking
Several memcoins on Solana rose amid the memcoin airdrop, but the biggest winner was Platform Pump.fun token (PUMP). The weekly gain of 27% was enough to bring PUMP back into the top 100 crypto rankings with a market cap of $630 million. Memecoin ANSEM extended its gains on Friday, reaching an all-time high of $112 million in market capitalization.
The launch of global prediction markets integrated into the Phantom wallet has fueled expectations of increased Solana activity. The project has raised almost $890,000 in total over two days and aims to compete with the hugely successful Polymarket amid the World Cup betting frenzy. Jupiter also introduced its prediction markets in a beta test on June 29.
On the subject: US dominates political stakes on Polymarket despite geoblocks – Report
SOL Perpetual Futures Funding Annual Rate. Source: Laevitas
Appetite for leveraged positions has waned significantly since Wednesday, when SOL broke above $75 for the first time in 30 days. The annual SOL futures funding rate fell to 3% on Friday from a peak of 11% two days earlier. In a neutral environment, the rate should range from 6% to 12% to offset the cost of capital.
Investors are uncomfortable betting on SOL’s rally to $90 against only a temporary backdrop demand for memecoins surge In the absence of sustained demand for blockchain activity, there are no obvious factors contributing to further widening the performance gap between SOL and the rest of the altcoins.
