Crypto claws back some losses but derivatives markets point to more pain ahead: Crypto Markets Today

Bitcoin BTC$58,580.68 rose 0.3% to $58,700 on Wednesday, showing a sliver of strength after spiking down to $57,700, the lowest point since September 2024, shortly after midnight UTC.

Ether (ETH) is at $1,580, having also experienced a slight relief bounce since 01:00 UTC.

U.S. equity index futures are lower since midnight UTC, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures in the red by 0.2%-0.4%

Risk assets like crypto and tech stocks have been struggling in recent weeks as concerns of impending inflation have lifted the U.S. dollar and made traders cautious.

The altcoin market has been the hardest hit because it lacks the liquidity and demand to deal with precipitous moves to the downside and liquidation cascades.

Derivatives positioning

• A total of $395 million worth of crypto futures bets have been liquidated in 24 hours, with bullish plays accounting for most of the tally. That’s hardly surprising given BTC’s dip to lows under $58,000 early in the day.
• The real story is crude futures listed on crypto exchanges. They have seen liquidations worth $15 million, the fifth-largest tally among all tokens. The figure shows just how popular TradFi trading has become on crypto exchanges.
• BTC’s futures open interest (OI) jumped to 768K BTC from 740K BTC a day ago. While the influx of money is encouraging, it’s unclear whether the bias is for bullish or bearish bets. For instance, the annualized funding rates hover near 5%, hinting at a bullish bias, while the 24-hour cumulative volume delta is negative, suggesting bears are being more aggressive and trading with market orders rather than passive limit orders.
• Gold perpetual futures OI hit a record high of 222K XAU tokens. This comes as the metal’s spot price shows a bearish death cross, signaled by the 50-day simple moving average crossing below the 200-day SMA. Prominent gold ETFs are displaying a similar bearish pattern.
• Bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indexes are steady after June’s double-digit gains. Bitcoin’s index, BVIV, is now hemmed between the 200-day average as resistance and the 50-day as support. A break above the 200-day MA might mean new turbulence and a deeper price slide.
• On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts remain pricier than calls across all time frames as traders seek downside protection.
• Key flows at over-the-counter desk Paradigm featured demand for the September expiry bitcoin put at the $50K strike price. This is a bet that prices could slide below $50K by the end of the third quarter. Meanwhile, someone lifted a SOL call option at the $86 strike. The token is currently trading around $75.

Token talk

• While the broader altcoin market is struggling, Solana-based DeFi token jupiter (JUP) has posted a trend reversal, rising by 11% since midnight UTC with a 55% increase in daily trading volume.
• The increase comes alongside a jump in total value locked (TVL), with the protocol, a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator. TVL has risen to more than 20 million SOL from 13.9 million in May.
• Stellar lumens (XLM) extended gains, rising from $0.168 on Sunday to $0.196, an increase of 17%.
• The strong performance of a select few altcoins kept CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index sticky at around 48/100 after ending June little changed despite weakness across the sector.
• AI tokens have been the recipient of that weakness. Bittensor (TAO) lost 2.5% on Wednesday and is now down by over 30% since June 15.