Cryptocurrency traders are no longer using their Bitcoin (BTC) earnings to buy altcoins as they did in previous bull cycles, raising questions about whether the broad “high season» may return.
Main conclusions:
- Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has collapsed to weakest level since 2021.
- Altcoin capital is increasingly concentrated in fewer projects, which delays the altseason.
Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend ‘mostly gone’
According to Ki Yong-joo, CEO of CryptoQuant, the old alt-season trade no longer works the way it did in previous boom cycles.
In a Saturday fastZhu said that the bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has “largely disappeared,” citing data from CryptoQuant showing that the BTC pair’s altcoin trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2021.
Aggregate altcoin trading volume for BTC price pairs. Source: CryptoQuant
The metric excludes major altcoins such as Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB (BNB), and Solana (SOL), focusing instead on mid- and smaller-cap altcoins that trade against bitcoin on centralized exchanges.
Simply put, it shows whether traders are using BTC to buy smaller altcoins.
That stream increased in 2017 and 2021, helping push the records into the postseason. But Yang Joo’s chart shows that BTC pair altcoin volume remains close to post-2021 lows, suggesting that Bitcoin is no longer the primary source of liquidity for altcoin speculation.
“The era of pumping alternatives just because BTC pumping may end,” said Young Joo.
Altcoin capital is now concentrated in fewer tokens
The broader altcoin market has become more concentrated, with the exception of stablecoins.
As of Saturday, the crypto market, excluding bitcoin and stablecoins, was worth roughly $600 billion. The top 10 non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about $483 billion of that total, or about 80.5%.
GENERAL crypto market excluding Bitcoin and all stablecoins. Source: TradingView
The number of large-cap altcoins has also fallen sharply since the last bull cycle.
According to CoinMarketCap, approximately 106 altcoins had a market valuation of more than $1 billion in 2021 historical picture. This number fell down to about 50 in June 2026.
This echoes Yang Joo’s argument that capital is no longer distributed across the altcoin market the way it was in 2021. The market hasn’t disappeared, but it consists of fewer major altcoins.
In a separate thread, Young Ju said that “narrative-only altcoins” are losing relevance as the market matures.
Source: X/Ki Young Ju
Young Joo said that hype alone is no longer enough. Stronger areas, he added, are related to real business, profitable DeFi, stablecoins, real world tokenized assetsand Agents of artificial intelligence.
This suggests that the next cycle of altcoins may be less about a market-wide spin and more about finding tokens that can find applications and users in the aforementioned industries.
BTC’s rebound in dominance may have “postponed” a second season
Crypto market dominance Bitcoin (BTC.D) is also showing early signs of a rebound, which could delay the broader altcoin rally.
The BTC.D metric bounced off its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA, purple) and the lower uptrend line, both aligned at 58.75%.
BTC.D Weekly Performance Chart. Source: TradingView
It could rise to the upper trend line of the channel around 60% if the momentum holds.
A move to 60% would mean that Bitcoin is gaining market share compared to the rest of crypto. From a market perspective, this suggests that capital may continue to flow from altcoins back into BTC, limiting the chances of an upcoming altseason.
Rekt Capital analyst general a similar view that points to a bullish divergence of bitcoin dominance, indicating that the “alt season is on hold.”
BTC.D Weekly Performance Chart. Source: TradingView/Rekt Capital
A bullish divergence is formed when a metric makes lower lows and its RSI makes higher lows. This often signals weakening downward momentum and a potential rebound.
On the topic: Altcoin Sales Surpass $266 Billion As Capital Drains Crypto: Alt Season Dead?
However, Rekt Capital said Bitcoin’s dominance may be limited because the metric has already lost its macro uptrend. He said the current bounce could act as a relief rally after the breakdown before further declines.
Bitcoin Dominance could drop to its 200-week EMA at 57% if Rekt Capital’s bearish scenario materializes.
