{"id":1962,"date":"2026-06-28T16:55:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T16:55:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/?p=1962"},"modified":"2026-06-28T16:55:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T16:55:46","slug":"bitcoin-is-now-cheaper-than-90-of-its-history-says-big-print-author-lawrence-leppard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/?p=1962","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin is now cheaper than 90% of its history, says big print author Lawrence Leppard"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-(25px) rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-(6px) !bg-success-10 p-3 @(420px):p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-(19px) !text-(#1c1c1c) md:text-(20px)\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key conclusions<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-(#434248)\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Leppard says the Fed&#8217;s task force on measuring inflation, led by Kevin Warsh, is set to justify a rate cut through the 2026 interim.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-(#434248)\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">At $59,000, Bitcoin is in a historically cheap zone that has been reached less than 10% of the time, according to the power law model.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-(#434248)\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The strategy generates roughly $1.7 billion in annual preferred stock dividends against $55 billion in bitcoin held, which Lepard says could cover bitcoin at a 4% annual return.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The Fed chairman is playing both sides<\/h2>\n<p>Lepard explained why he has faith in the Fed chairman <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/kevin-warsh-first-congress-testimony-july-14\/\">Kevin Warsh<\/a> signals a rate cut even as market prices rise. Before accepting the role, Warsh publicly argued that the Dallas-based PCE average, about 100 basis points below the headline CPI, might be more accurate <span>inflation<\/span> sensor. He also compared today&#8217;s rise in artificial intelligence (AI) productivity to the technology boom of the mid-1990s, when Greenspan kept the stakes low without causing <span>inflation<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I think both of those things meant to me that he wanted to lower the rates,&#8221; Lepard said during the meeting <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/n67u-O2Xn2U?si=IIrqSCkCdLfqAWU7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">an interview<\/a>. &#8220;I suspect he said both of those things to Trump. I suspect that&#8217;s partly why he was elected to the job.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>That changed after the bad <span>inflation<\/span> prints related to the increase in oil prices after <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/iran-moves-to-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-tensions-erupt-over-broken-ceasefire-deal\/\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a> closing Now the market is seeing an increase in rates. Lepard thinks the reading is wrong.<\/p>\n<p>His reasoning: The US government incurs an annual interest expense of $1.3 trillion. In his opinion, it is structurally impossible to raise rates materially. The newly formed Task Force Warsh on <span>inflation<\/span> Leppard argues that the measure is intended to provide political cover for the declaration <span>inflation<\/span> less than the headline numbers suggest, paving the way for cuts ahead of the midterm elections.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The chances that the Fed will raise rates this year are zero,&#8221; he stressed. &#8220;And the market thinks there&#8217;s a 100% chance they&#8217;ll raise rates this year. One of us is right and the other is wrong.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin and the power law<\/h2>\n<p> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> broke below $60,000 during the interview. Lepard noted that it also broke below the 200-day moving average and briefly fell outside the power-law corridor, a log-scale model developed by researcher Giovanni Santastasi and extended by mathematician Fred Krueger that fits <span>bitcoin<\/span>Price history with 95% R-squared correlation.<\/p>\n<p>Lepard described the current price as near or below half a standard deviation below the mean power law, zone <span>bitcoin<\/span> occupies less than 10% of the entire trading history. In the previous one <span>bear markets<\/span>prices in this zone tend to recover within weeks or months.<\/p>\n<p>He quoted the previous one <span>bear market<\/span> 70%, 80%, and 90% drawdowns as context as to why this cycle&#8217;s roughly 50% correction from the October peak may indicate acceptance is maturing and the decline <span>volatility<\/span>. He does not rule out a further drop to the lows of $50,000, but sees less than $50,000 as unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>&#8221; <span>Bitcoin<\/span> right now compared to its historical 200-day moving average is really quite cheap,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<p>Lepard continued:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"quote-solid\">\n<p>&#8220;It was that cheap less than 10% of the time.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2>The next large print<\/h2>\n<p>Lepard&#8217;s main macrothesis is that the US debt-to-GDP ratio, currently around 124%, cannot be solved through growth alone. He cited former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson&#8217;s recent appearance on Bloomberg after 15 years of public silence as a signal that insiders are preparing markets for the future <span>liquidity<\/span> crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Each successive intervention by the Fed has been larger than the last. The answer in 2008 was about $2 to $3 trillion over three years. The 18-month response to COVID reached an estimated $5 trillion. Lepard expects the next intervention to exceed both in size and speed.<\/p>\n<p>He frames <span>gold<\/span>silver, and <span>bitcoin<\/span> as cash devaluation insurance, essentially a devaluation trade. <span>Bitcoin<\/span> ranks first in its hierarchy because it cannot be printed, transfers in minutes, requires no storage costs, and has a 16-year track record of growing adoption, despite\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n<h2>Strategy and mathematics<\/h2>\n<p>Lepard also told critics of Michael Saylor <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/michael-saylor-teases-bullish-signal-more-charts-may-be-coming-as-strategys-bitcoin-accumulation-grows\/\">Strategy<\/a> did not do basic math. Strategy&#8217;s preferred stock dividend liability is approximately $1.7 billion annually. About $55 billion <span>bitcoin<\/span> on balance at the time of the interview, Lepard estimates Strategy will need to sell about 4% of its holdings <span>bitcoin<\/span> per annum to cover this obligation. If <span>bitcoin<\/span> estimates a minimum of 4% annually, ordinary shareholders break even on this mechanism alone. <span>Bitcoin<\/span>Historical annual revenue is well above this level.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You can&#8217;t break the Strategy,&#8221; he said. \u201cI mean, you&#8217;re breaking it when <span>bitcoin<\/span> breaks. But when <span>bitcoin<\/span> stays at $50,000 to $60,000 for a few years, they&#8217;ll be perfectly fine.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-826958\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chase-palmierixpost.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1416\" height=\"1116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chase-palmierixpost-300x236.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chase-palmierixpost-1024x807.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chase-palmierixpost-768x605.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/chase-palmierixpost.png 1416w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1416px) 100vw, 1416px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>He added that he sells some <span>gold<\/span> and silver positions to buy both <span>bitcoin<\/span> and Strategy stock at current prices, which he sees as attractive given Strategy&#8217;s $33 billion <span>market capitalization<\/span> against what he predicts is multi-trillion long-term potential.<\/p>\n<h2>Where is Leopard<\/h2>\n<p>Leopard keeps a large personal <span>bitcoin<\/span> ( <span>BTC<\/span>) stack and a significant position of the Strategy. He told the listeners the size <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> exposure so that a 50% reduction would not result in a sale and said that at current prices he would consider a lump sum rather than <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/dollar-cost-averaging\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">dollar cost averaging<\/a>considering how rare it is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> reaches this price zone relative to its history.<\/p>\n<p>Its price target is about $180,000 in the next two years, $1 million in about 2031 or 2032 based on the power law, and about $6 million per coin over 15 years. It frames these targets as consistent model results that persist with a 95% correlation. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>complete history of the market.<\/p>\n<h6><em>Hero\/Feature Image Source: RE:Bitcoin episode of the Youtube show &#8220;We Broke Below the Power Law with Lawrence Lepard&#8221;.<\/em><\/h6>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"You Can&amp;apos;t Break Strategy with Lawrence Lepard | RE:Bitcoin\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/n67u-O2Xn2U?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> <!-- --><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key conclusions Leppard says the Fed&#8217;s task force on measuring inflation, led by Kevin Warsh, is set to justify a rate cut through the 2026 interim. At $59,000, Bitcoin is in a historically cheap zone that has been reached less than 10% of the time, according to the power law model. The strategy generates roughly &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[154,732,317,350,768],"class_list":["post-1962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gold","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-silver"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1962\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xrpfaucet.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}